Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.503109 0.581999 0.668401 0.769942 0.885898 1.014075 1.166388
2025-06-15 0.391576 0.504300 0.640437 0.816407 1.037258 1.304637 1.652235
2025-06-22 0.302709 0.422087 0.577010 0.791648 1.080015 1.452567 1.968703
2025-06-29 0.243584 0.362850 0.527121 0.768061 1.110249 1.576199 2.255600
2025-07-06 0.201802 0.318607 0.488099 0.749350 1.138639 1.693226 2.538009
2025-07-13 0.178467 0.296648 0.476205 0.765286 1.214470 1.879958 2.932672
2025-07-20 0.164832 0.286995 0.480425 0.804201 1.326389 2.127342 3.437218
2025-07-27 0.150510 0.273783 0.476694 0.828945 1.417124 2.348804 3.920072
2025-08-03 0.135413 0.256875 0.464364 0.837272 1.480769 2.531509 4.355603
2025-08-10 0.120677 0.238372 0.446723 0.833825 1.523100 2.681530 4.748439
2025-08-17 0.107018 0.219841 0.426565 0.823113 1.550757 2.807831 5.110018
2025-08-24 0.095736 0.204203 0.409606 0.815812 1.582773 2.942782 5.495578
2025-08-31 0.083191 0.184587 0.383333 0.789055 1.578158 3.015702 5.783465
2025-09-07 0.080462 0.184742 0.395317 0.837102 1.718482 3.361610 6.594475
2025-09-14 0.070462 0.168022 0.371610 0.811781 1.714777 3.441195 6.919119
2025-09-21 0.061902 0.153171 0.349832 0.787631 1.710333 3.517869 7.242900
2025-09-28 0.054861 0.140715 0.331532 0.768470 1.713577 3.608689 7.600000
2025-10-05 0.051397 0.136162 0.329878 0.784789 1.791825 3.853449 8.280004
2025-10-12 0.049915 0.136211 0.338512 0.824636 1.923662 4.216327 9.225600
2025-10-19 0.047507 0.133597 0.340677 0.849972 2.026037 4.526180 10.085113
2025-10-26 0.044240 0.128291 0.335845 0.858498 2.091612 4.763582 10.810329
2025-11-02 0.040594 0.121433 0.326408 0.854969 2.129180 4.943464 11.425477
2025-11-09 0.036915 0.113930 0.314465 0.844001 2.148288 5.084285 11.965970